New projections from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluations forecasts the U.S. will reach its peak for daily COVID-19 deaths in mid-April.
What We Know:
- The model also shows the U.S. will reach a hospital resource use peak on April 15, when 220,643 hospital beds are predicted to be needed, including 32,976 intensive care unit beds. IHME projections indicate the U.S. will have a shortage of 54,046 hospital beds and 13,856 ICU beds on that date.
- “No state, no metro area will be spared. And the sooner that we react and the sooner the states and the metro areas react and ensure that they put in full mitigation at the same time understanding exactly what their hospitals need, then we’ll be able to move forward together and protect the most Americans,” White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx said Sunday on NBC’s Meet The Press, referring to IHME’s forecast.
“In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic in the U.S. will place a load well beyond the current capacity of hospitals to manage, especially for ICU care. These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate this gap, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity.” – IHME Director Christopher J.L. Murray
- Nationwide, IHME is predicting 2,341 will die at the height of the pandemic on April 14, with the daily death toll dropping below 100 on June 12. By August 4, an estimated 81,114 people in the United States will have died from COVID-19, if the IHME’s predictions hold true.
- “By end of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave,” the IHME said.
- Several states have issued statewide stay-at-home orders. On Sunday, President Donald Trump said the federal government was extending its guidelines on social distancing and other protective measure through April 30.
COVID-19 is a respiratory disease caused by a novel coronavirus. The disease has caused at least 3,192 deaths in the U.S., with more than 166,000 confirmed cases in the country. COVID-19 symptoms appear within 2 to 14 days after exposure and include fever, cough, runny nose, and difficulty breathing.
