Off-year elections typically don’t command much attention on the national level. Of course, nothing has been typical during President Donald Trump’s second term. After Democrats racked up several significant wins during the November elections, all eyes are now on a Tennessee special election to see whether they can carry that momentum into taking a House seat in a reliably Red district.
According to AP, the special election was triggered in Tennessee’s 7th District after Republican Rep. Mark Green unexpectedly retired over the summer to pursue a job in the private sector. Matt Van Epps, the Republican candidate running to succeed Green, has over $1 million in backing from MAGA Inc. This is the first time the Trump-focused PAC has donated money to any campaign since last year’s presidential election, showing the outsize importance of this race to the GOP.
Despite last year’s elections giving Republicans control of the presidency and Congress, the rate at which the GOP has turned the country against them during the first year of Trump’s second term is somewhat impressive. A large number of Trump’s own voters feel like he hasn’t delivered on his promises to lower prices, with his erratic tariff policy actually doing the opposite.
While immigration was a major issue during the election, a wide swath of voters has been showing signs of discomfort with the authoritarian nature of the ongoing ICE raids nationwide. The wins by Democrats in New York, Virginia, and New Jersey during last month’s elections were largely viewed as a referendum on Trump Season Two, Year One.
State Rep. Aftyn Behn, the Democratic candidate in the Tennessee special election, is hoping to leverage the GOP’s stalling momentum into a House seat. She’s made affordability a focus of her campaign and has been critical of Trump’s tariff policy and tax cuts. While the GOP has run attack ads where Behn can be heard saying she hates Nashville, Behn has explained that while she’s annoyed with the tourist traps, she wants the city “to be a place where working people can thrive.”
While it would be nice for Behn to win, especially with the GOP trying to gerrymander their way to a midterms win, losing by a close margin would still be a boon for Democrats. Polling shows Behn only trailing Van Epps by two percentage points in a district redrawn to be more favorable to Republicans. For reference, this is a district Green previously won by 21 points.
“If we get with a certain number of points or if we flip it, that it will signal to Washington Republicans that this agenda that they’ve been running on is not welcomed and is not favorable by most voters, especially in deep-red territory,” Behn said in an interview with CNN.
Both parties are acutely aware of the importance of the Tennessee special election and what it could mean going into the 2026 midterms. Trump himself has been campaigning for Van Epps, appearing by phone during a rally on Monday and holding a tele-rally later in the day. House Majority Speaker Mike Johnson also appeared during the rally on Monday.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris joined a canvassing kickoff for Behn while in Nashville for her book tour. Tennessee native and former Vice President Al Gore held a virtual rally with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Monday evening. The House Majority PAC has spent $1 million on Behn’s campaign, and the Your Community PAC has sent out mailers urging Republicans to vote for independent candidate Jon Thorp instead.
Should Behn win the Tennessee special election, it would further narrow the number of seats Democrats need to win to regain control of the House during next year’s midterms. Trump has spent the last several months pressuring several red states into rare, mid-decade redistricting efforts. Behn winning a district that was already redrawn to be more red would signal that redistricting isn’t going to help the GOP if they continue to ignore America’s growing affordability crisis.
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